Conflict Analyst

Background and Project Description

Almost 1.3 million of the 6.5 million living in east Sudan (Gedaref, Kassala and Red Sea states), are facing crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity, according to the latest IPC analysis from May 2021. According to the 2021 Humanitarian Needs Overview, over 1.7 million people across the three states are in severe, extreme or catastrophic humanitarian conditions, and the 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan aims to support more than 1.1 million people. The region is acutely vulnerable to recurrent climatic and economic shocks; unprecedented level of flooding, impacts of COVID-19, steep increase in the prices of basic goods and low-intensity violence have added strain to an already vulnerable population, further driving humanitarian needs. These are all underpinned by chronic underdevelopment.

The armed conflict in Ethiopia’s northern regions and the Sudan/Ethiopia border area, Fashaga had led to refugee inflows and impacted on the livelihoods of people in Sudan. This has added to existing political tensions in the area and increasing the humanitarian caseload and protection risks. At least 46,505 refugees have arrived in eastern Sudan between November 8, 2020, and 1 July 2021.

The arrival of Ethiopian refugees from different ethnicities, coupled with divisions within the groups living in eastern Sudan, could quickly escalate into localized conflict that could have national level consequences.

The historical absence of the state in providing basic services in eastern Sudan has over time led to the strengthening of ethnic identities as various trade unions and cooperatives with ethnic ties replaced the state in providing basic services. Communities living in the border areas which are entry points for refugees are already unhappy about the extended presence of refugees. Eastern Sudan hosts over 178,000 protracted refugees from Ethiopia and Eritrea and has 11 refugee camps.

In light of what is happening in Ethiopia and on the border, OCHA is looking for short-term consultant with in-depth knowledge and understanding of the impact it is having in the East. This expertise is urgently required to inform the preparedness and humanitarian response there.  

Objective:

The purpose of the assignment is to support the implementation of the below key areas:

Analysis of the impact of the armed conflict in Fashaga and northern Ethiopia on people’s livelihoods and institutions in Sudan, including:

• Analysis of potential additional Ethiopian refugee inflows (from Tigray, Gumuz, Quemant etc.), their composition, allies, and threats.
• Recommendations for a conflict sensitive humanitarian response as well as options to support peacebuilding interventions.
• Support engagement by OCHA and humanitarian partners with native local administrators to understand relationships between them and other local communities and refugees (impact of refugees) to explore opportunities to better inform and support humanitarian operations and peace building.
• Analysis of the role and composition of Sudan security forces in east Sudan, and connection to the conflict in Ethiopia (Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz and Quemant) 

Scope of Works:

The Consultant will be responsible for providing monthly analysis and reports on the situation in the East considering what is happening in Ethiopia and the on the border area.   

Institutional Arrangements:

The incumbent will be supervised by the Head of Sub Office (HoSO) for Kassala, in coordination with the Head of the OCHA Sudan Analysis Unit, and shall provide regular updates, reports of all the work progress to the HoSO on a monthly basis

Duration of the Work:

The consultancy service duration will be twenty-eight (28) working days effective 25 August to 31 December 2021, seven (7) days per month. OCHA will provide a timesheet

Duty Station:

This assignment will be based as needed in OCHA office in Kassala and Khartoum

Scope of Price Proposal and Schedule of Payments:

Payment will be made as per PAF Norms. Payments are on monthly basis and will be made upon completion of key deliverables as outlined in section IV above.

Recommended Presentation of Offer:

Applicants are kindly requested to complete and sign and submit all the following documents:

1. Duly completed Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability using the template provided by UNDP;
2. Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;
3. Brief description of why the individual considers him/herself/itself as the most suitable for the assignment;
4. Financial Proposal that indicates the all-inclusive fixed total contract price, per month.

Evaluation Criteria and selection of the consultant:

The offers received from the candidates will be evaluated using combined scoring method. The combined scoring method assesses the capacity of candidates – where the qualifications, experience and skills will be weighted a maximum of 70%, and later combined with the price offer which will be weighted a max of 30%.

Eligibility Criteria:

Bachelor’s Degree in political or social science or related fields is required; demonstrated knowledge about eastern Sudan.

Technical Evaluation Gird:

The candidates obtaining 49 points and above (or 70% and above) will only be technically qualified; then their price proposals will be reviewed and compared for the assessment of overall ranking. Those obtaining lower than 49 points (or lesser than 70%) will be technically non-responsive candidates and will not be compared.

Assessment of the Price Proposals (30 Points) or 30%:

The lowest priced bid from among the technically qualified Offerors will obtain the full marks of 30 points in the price proposal. Price proposals of remaining qualified candidate will be prorated against the lowest priced bid using the following formula to derive the marks in their price proposal:

Marks obtained by a candidate = Lowest Priced Bid (amount) / Bid of the Offeror (amount) X 30 (Full Marks)

Award of the Contract/Award Criteria:

The contract will be awarded to the candidate (bidder) whose proposal obtains the highest cumulative marks

(points) when the marks obtained in technical and price proposals are aggregated together.

For TOR and Offerors letter, please use the link below:

http://196.202.143.140/DPAcclab/JAdv/CA/

Corporate Competencies:

• Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards.
• Promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UNOCHA.
• Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
• Treats all people fairly without favoritism;
• Ability to work with a multi-cultural and diverse team.

Functional Competencies:

• Demonstrated experience in conflict analysis.
• Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to gather and organize information

The incumbents shall possess:?

• Diploma in in Political Social Science, Business Administration or equivalent
• A minimum of six years of experience in conflict analysis and peacebuilding in East Sudan
• Reports or papers written on conflict dynamics in Sudan
• Considerable fluency in oral and written English and Arabic language is essential
• Should be able to join on short notice
• Sudanese by nationality